Living Within Limits - Chapter 17

The Benign Demographic Transition

In 1934, Adolphe Landry advanced the theory that the industrialized world will eventually settle upon a 'new normal'.  More importantly, the route that this will naturally take, is a decrease in birth rates.  This is known as the "Benign Demographic Transition" - benign because it is better to imagine a decline in the birth rate, than the alternative.  (In fact, the theory doesn't even mention the alternative)

Graphically, it can be represented as below.

The Alternative

Affectionately known as the "Malign Demographic Transition", this anti-theory presents the possibility that the new normal will be reached another way - through a dramatic increase in the death rate.  The causes of this are too numerous to list, however they could include such unpleasantness as nuclear war, viral outbreak, mass genocide, natural disaster, etc.

This is a possibility not often mentioned in popular culture... perhaps even a taboo

Question of Choice

The benign demographic transition is only possible through a conscious choice.  Humanity must decide to go down this route, through birth control measurements.

There is no indecision in this case.  Indecision is choosing the alternative.  If we do not make changes to our birth rate, we will have indirectly chosen to make changes to our death rate.  I hope we make the right choice.