Hardin tells the story of an American journalist who once visited a refugee camp in Russia, on reports that half the people died of starvation.
Noticing some sacks of grain stacked on an adjacent field, he asked the patriarch of the refugee community why the people did not simply overpower the lone soldier guarding the grain and help themselves. The patriarch impatiently explained that the seed was being saved for next season's planting. 'We do not steal from the future,' he said.Unless perpetual growth is obtainable (unlikely in the opinion of Hardin), then we must try to settle the population at a stationary/stable state. Otherwise, if we continue to expand without limits, we will face a bleak future, which will likely involve a potential population collapse (has happened before).
Malthus had at least one supporter...
John Stuart Mill was one of the only economists of the 19th century to deviate from the camp of 'growthmanship'. He advocated for the idea of a stationary state...
If the earth must lose that great portion of its pleasantness which it owes to things that the unlimited increase of wealth and population would extirpate from it, for the mere purpose of enabling it to support a larger, but not a better or a happier population, I sincerely hope, for the sake of posterity, that they will be content to be stationary, long before ncessity compels them to it. -Principles of Political Economy
Necessity (was) the mother of invention...
So said Aesop, the famous fabler, twenty five hundred years ago. Paradoxically, today invention has become the breeder of necessity. Welcome to the world of 3000 sq ft 'cribs', luxury SUVs, performance running shoes, 50 inch LED TV's (3D optional), etc. etc.
What goes up, must come down (but faster)...
The tragic truth is that the rise and fall of civilizations (and markets) is not a symmetrical affair. 'From barbarism to civilization requires a century; from civilization to barbarism needs but a day' (Will Durant).
Trendspotting vs fundamental analysis...
Proponents of the idea that the indefinite (implied, infinite) future will mirror the recent past is a form of 'synoptic' forecasting. This methodology is similar to 1) trying to predict the weather based upon historical weather patterns, or 2) trying to predict future stock prices by reading historical price charts.
The alternative is through fundamental analysis, in this case taking into account the laws of diminishing returns, finite resources, geometric growth, etc.
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